US President Barack Obama proclaimed America had usurped China as the world's No 1 investment destination, a bold statement that left some economists scratching their heads.
The White House cited an AT Kearney survey as the basis for Obama's remark in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, noting the US topped the global consulting firm's list for expected foreign direct investment.
But the US ranks lower in other prominent surveys. Forbes' annual report on the best country to do business in put Ireland at the top, with the US at No 14, according to Politico's website. It also noted that the Milken Institute - which measures countries on 67 variables, including economic fundamentals and regulations - put the United States at No 22, behind Hong Kong at No 1.
Obama kicked off his speech with a list of his administration's economic achievements.
"Here are the results of your efforts: the lowest unemployment rate in over five years. A rebounding housing market. A manufacturing sector that's adding jobs for the first time since the 1990s. More oil produced at home than we buy from the rest of the world - the first time that's happened in nearly 20 years...," Obama said. "And for the first time in over a decade, business leaders around the world have declared that China is no longer the world's number one place to invest; America is."
The statement pacified some Americans' concerns in the past couple of years that "China is eating America's lunch", but it triggered a fierce debate.
RBS economist Louis Kuijs said despite the fact that the United States is emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis and is on track for an economic upturn this year, hurdles remain to making it the world's top investment destination.
"The US has made progress in economic recovery, which makes itself a more attractive place for investments," Kuijs said. "Many federal governments are quite keen on attracting investments and manufacturing as energy prices are lower."
However, lower energy costs, thanks to abundant supply of shale gas, are not the sole factor. There are others such as wages and availability of supply chain services, he said.
He added that the mainland's sophisticated and advanced logistics and supply chain network makes it more favourable in manufacturing activities.
"The supply networks were lost along with the demise of many manufacturing activities in the US many years ago," Kuijs said. "It is not easy to bring more jobs back to the US."
The US is more suitable for developing some petrochemical-related industries, he said.
US-based financial services firm Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Marc Chandler saw the US as the best investment location by some measures such as low unit labour costs, cheap energy, higher legal transparency and signs of manufacturing activities returning to the country.
"Many worried about a bubbling debt problem, quicker deterioration in demography, poor stock market and unstable money market in China," he said.
However, Wilson Tong, a professor with Hong Kong Polytechnic University's School of Accounting and Finance, has faith in China's attractiveness on the world's economic stage. He says because the US is unwinding its quantitative easing measures, capital is naturally flowing back to the country.
美國(guó)總統(tǒng)奧巴馬聲稱美國(guó)已經(jīng)取代中國(guó)成為世界首選投資目的地，這一大膽言論讓一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家莫名其妙。
奧巴馬在周二的國(guó)情咨文演講中提到，美國(guó)已成為全球咨詢公司預(yù)期的外國(guó)直接投資的首選目的地，白宮還援引AT Kearney的調(diào)查作為這一言論的根據(jù)。
不過(guò)在其他著名的調(diào)查中，美國(guó)的排名可沒(méi)這么高。福布斯最佳經(jīng)商國(guó)家年度報(bào)告中，愛(ài)爾蘭居首，而美國(guó)排在第14位。此外，根據(jù)67個(gè)變量對(duì)國(guó)家做出考量的梅肯研究院把美國(guó)排在第22位，而排名第一的是香港。
奧巴馬在演講中列出了一大串他執(zhí)政下取得的經(jīng)濟(jì)成就：
“這是你們努力的結(jié)果：五年多來(lái)最低的失業(yè)率。房屋市場(chǎng)回暖。制造行業(yè)自20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái)首次增加了職位。我們國(guó)內(nèi)的產(chǎn)油量超過(guò)了從世界其他國(guó)家進(jìn)口的油量——這是近20年來(lái)的頭一次。而且，全世界商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖十多年來(lái)首次宣稱中國(guó)不再是世界首選投資地，美國(guó)才是。”
這一言論平息了一些美國(guó)人在過(guò)去幾年對(duì)“中國(guó)正在吃掉美國(guó)人的午餐”的擔(dān)憂，但這也引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)激烈的討論。
蘇格蘭皇家銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家路易斯·庫(kù)伊基斯說(shuō)，盡管美國(guó)正在從2008年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中復(fù)蘇，今年也步上了經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)的軌道，但是美國(guó)要成為世界首選投資目的地，還有不少障礙。
庫(kù)伊基斯說(shuō)：“美國(guó)在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇上取得了進(jìn)展，這讓它作為投資地變得更有吸引力。許多聯(lián)邦政府對(duì)于吸引投資和制造商都很積極，因?yàn)槟茉磧r(jià)格降低了。”
但是，較低的能源價(jià)格(這要感謝頁(yè)巖氣的充足供應(yīng))并不是唯一的因素，他說(shuō)，還有其他因素，比如工資，還有獲得供應(yīng)鏈服務(wù)的難易。
他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，中國(guó)大陸高度發(fā)達(dá)的物流體系和供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)讓其更有利于制造業(yè)活動(dòng)的開(kāi)展。
庫(kù)伊基斯說(shuō)：“在許多年前，隨著美國(guó)許多制造業(yè)活動(dòng)的終止，供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)也隨之喪失。想把更多工作崗位帶回到美國(guó)并不容易。”
他說(shuō)，美國(guó)更適合發(fā)展一些和石油化學(xué)產(chǎn)品相關(guān)的產(chǎn)業(yè)。
總部在美國(guó)的金融服務(wù)公司布朗兄弟哈里曼銀行的策略分析師馬克·錢(qián)德勒把美國(guó)視為最佳投資地，他列出的利好因素有較低的單位勞動(dòng)力成本、清潔能源、更高的法律透明度，以及制造活動(dòng)回歸本國(guó)的跡象。
他說(shuō)：“許多人擔(dān)憂中國(guó)正在醞釀的債務(wù)問(wèn)題、人口的迅速老化、不良的股票市場(chǎng)和不穩(wěn)定的金融市場(chǎng)。”
但是，香港理工大學(xué)會(huì)計(jì)金融分院的教授威爾森·唐對(duì)中國(guó)在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)舞臺(tái)上的吸引力很有信心。他說(shuō)，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)正逐步實(shí)施量化寬松措施，資金自然就會(huì)回流。